The Military Strategic Effects of the Russian National Segment of the Internet

Abstract

The aim of this thesis is to develop a theoretical and conceptual basis for studying structural cyber asymmetry and to examine the strategic effects of the Russian national segment of the internet. This topic is important because cyberspace is one of the domains through or into which force can be directed to achieve political ends. Methodologically this thesis is a theory-driven qualitative case study based on content analysis and abduction.

This thesis demonstrates that cyber power can be studied as a means to shape cyberspace. This approach offers a new perspective on studying the effects of national cyber strategies and the asymmetric power relationships between states. Freedom of action, common situation picture, command and control, and resilience are useful concepts for studying the relationship between closed and open national networks. These four concepts can be combined with the model of a national information security and defence system of systems to examine and compare the management and control of national networks in a novel way which takes into account the way the governance of the internet is currently changing.

This thesis argues that the structural cyber asymmetry caused by the creation of a national segment of the internet sets significant premises and frames of reference on the states’ use of force in cyberspace. Structural cyber asymmetry also shapes the effects of the use force. The construction of a national segment of the internet can be compared to strategic level preparation of a cyber battlefield. The Russian national segment of the internet can, if successfully completed, change the global balance of power in cyberspace. However, the national segment, as currently envisioned, has serious vulnerabilities. Moreover, its construction will increase the interdependencies between domains, great power competition, risks of escalation, and the risk of preventive or even pre-emptive cyber strikes. The national segment of the internet increases the fragmentation of cyberspace and strengthens the norm of cyber sovereignty.