When does Regression Discontinuity Design Work? Evidence from Random Election Outcomes
Hyytinen, Ari; Meriläinen, Jaakko; Saarimaa, Tuukka; Toivanen, Otto; Tukiainen, Janne (2018)
Tässä tietueessa ei ole tiedostoja, ainoastaan metadata.
Hyytinen, Ari
Meriläinen, Jaakko
Saarimaa, Tuukka
Toivanen, Otto
Tukiainen, Janne
Econometric Society
2018
Kuvaus
peerReviewed
Tiivistelmä
We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non-experimental RDD estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-corrected RDD estimates applying robust inference are, however, in line with the experimental estimate. Therefore, state-of-the-art implementation of RDD can meet the replication standard in the context of close elections.
JEL
C21, C52, D72
Avainsanat
Close elections, experiment, incumbency advantage, regression discontinuity design